Back to Intrade…

For those of us who were secretly rooting for Romney back in the primaries (me), conventional wisdom has some good news.  According to the Intrade Prediction Markets, Romney is the betting favorite to be selected for McCain’s VP!

For reference, here is how Biden’s Intrade stock did in the last month.


Looking through the last-week performances of the other Democratic contenders, it seems like the markets did a pretty good job: Biden was the favorite at around 40% probability. Is conventional wisdom just that good?  Or are these markets strongly affected by rumors and insider trading leaking from the campaigns?

For a related question, why has Romney’s stock skyrocketed from around 30% to 60% in the last two days?  Has their been some audible murmurs from the McCain staffers?  Or did the Biden announcement just get a bunch of people curious and generate a new round of Intrade betting?  I know that that’s what drove me to Intrade.

How should we feel about a Romney selection?  I have mixed feelings about it.  I think he’d be a very competent VP, but I’m not sure how palatable he is to the American electorate. But then, I’m not sure any Republican but John McCain is palatable to anyone right now. Romney will hold down the Mormon vote for Republicans at least.

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